Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 30.330621 33.895066 38.018319 43.220159 49.728513 57.779609 68.798772
2025-03-30 25.256016 29.669876 35.255875 43.116535 54.409259 71.046519 99.907795
2025-04-06 21.659291 26.288671 32.514156 41.996818 57.197815 83.377709 141.867932
2025-04-13 20.132476 25.216664 32.477868 44.499692 66.345703 112.424882 268.507400
2025-04-20 18.272700 23.335951 30.847302 43.991328 70.122601 135.148682 485.480296
2025-04-27 16.996721 22.088062 29.907806 44.330453 75.733730 170.167852 1349.188152
2025-05-04 15.999144 21.109300 29.202364 44.866223 82.137468 220.777362 65001.163707
2025-05-11 15.099582 20.166599 28.394305 44.977452 87.685909 285.821290 NaN
2025-05-18 14.212484 19.148221 27.309032 44.260027 90.696653 353.849833 NaN
2025-05-25 13.570965 18.459832 26.706689 44.430843 96.681488 489.245329 NaN
2025-06-01 12.941475 17.734157 25.945859 44.080252 100.915114 670.758277 NaN
2025-06-08 12.355272 17.033295 25.151968 43.492940 104.123464 934.303523 NaN
2025-06-15 11.819785 16.388510 24.415085 42.951830 107.608209 1434.964101 NaN
2025-06-22 11.358715 15.839152 23.807677 42.627611 112.107800 2747.554817 NaN
2025-06-29 10.848157 15.173528 22.917303 41.431804 112.007890 4605.466467 NaN
2025-07-06 10.739822 15.192573 23.363058 43.828693 132.560738 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 10.364826 14.719848 22.780366 43.310933 136.817955 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.093365 14.414006 22.509489 43.631053 147.219281 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.857842 14.157779 22.316831 44.147918 160.367373 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.606076 13.857766 22.006070 44.253963 171.208637 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.310621 13.463575 21.465368 43.554591 174.643183 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.098118 13.210787 21.209193 43.720421 187.260237 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 8.863056 12.905333 20.816544 43.378900 194.820239 NaN NaN